Kentucky will not be as good on offense as they were in 2007. This is a given. Andre Woodson, Rafael Little, Keenan Burton, Steve Johnson and Jacob Tamme are all trying to cut their teeth in the NFL. Mike Hartline emerged as the starting quarterback after Curtis Pulley was dismissed from the team, though I believe that Hartline would have been named the starter anyway. If you believe coaches, Mike did a lot of the same things Andre Woodson did during the offseason where he was expected to battle with Pulley for the starting job. Hartline became a leader and gained the support of his teammates. As Dicky Lyons says, “Nobody doesn’t not like Mike Hartline.” In fact, quarterback is not my biggest area of concern for the offense. Hartline is green, but by all accounts he has been very efficient. Also, watch out for Randall Cobb. I don’t think he’ll get any snaps at QB, but I do think you’ll see him on the field a few times, maybe just as a decoy by Joker Phillips to scare the crap out of the Louisville defense.
My biggest concern is wide receiver. Lyons is awesome and everybody loves him, but he’s not a #1 receiver. He’s a slot guy. He’s more of a possession guy than a slot guy. It would be like the Indianapolis Colts making Anthony Gonzalez their top receiver. Some guys are just natural in the slot, and with Burton and Johnson on the edges last season, Dicky got to play at his most natural spot on the field. Now he has to carry the same kind of load that Burton or Johnson did last year, and I worry about his ability to do that. More that that, though, I worry about the depth at the position. EJ Adams is going to start opposite Lyons instead of the injured Kyrus Lanxter. I don’t really know enough about either man to say which guy would work out better, but I do know that Lanxter is more experienced. Demoreo Ford is a blocker first and foremost. Matt Roark and Eric Adeyemi are freshmen, which means they’re unpredictable. Roark has pro size and Adeyemi has blazing speed, but who knows how they’ll do in backup roles in a game situation? I like Maurice Grinter at tight end. Nobody can replace Jacob Tamme, but if Grinter won the starting job over TC Drake in his first season playing the position (Mo used to back up John Conner at FB), then he must be decent.
At running back, I feel great about the good guys. Little ran all over the Cardinals defense last year, but even though he’s gone, Kentucky still has amazing depth in the backfield. Tony Dixon will start, but I’m not sure if he’ll get the most carries. Dixon is a good power runner, but he’s always had problems with fumbling. Derrick Locke is second on the depth chart. If he were three inches taller and 25 pounds heavier, he’d be #1 on the list. He’s the fastest back on the team, and his play in the games against LSU and Arkansas showed that he could take a hit. I don’t think Locke got one carry against Louisville last season, so the Cards are in for a treat. Alfonso Smith is probably the most complete back on the roster in terms of running ability, but he had problems last year with blocking. Moncell Allen is the tank. I’ve always loved his running style, and he’s so short and stocky that it’s very tough to bring him down. I hope he gets the nod in goal line situations instead of Dixon, unless Dixon has gotten better at holding onto the ball. John Conner is an outstanding fullback in all phases of the game. He runs hard in what few touches he gets, he runs a good flat route in goal line packages and he’s also a very good blocker.
At the line, Kentucky has three starters returning. Garry Williams, Justin Jeffries and Zipp Duncan all got better as the season progressed. In fact, I’m pretty sure Williams won SEC Lineman of the Week one week last year, possibly for not giving up a sack against LSU. Jess Beets beat out Brad Durham and Stuart Hines to take the spot at RG vacated by Brodhead resident Jason Leger. I thought Durham would have gotten it, so Beets beating Durham is a bit of a surprise to me. At 6’2”, 285 lbs., Beets is the smallest of the five linemen. Jorge Gonzalez takes over for Eric Scott at center. It was his job to lose going into the season, and he didn’t lose it. He should do just fine.
Louisville has experience along the defensive line and in the secondary as well. Ends Maurice Mitchell and LD Scott are pretty big for their position. I don’t remember Scott, but I do remember Mitchell from last season. If my memory serves me correctly, he lined up against Jeffries last season. Tackles Adrian Grady and Earl Heyman are seniors and are both very good. Both guys held their own on the 2006 Louisville defense, though most of the praise went to current Houston Texan Amobi Okoye. I don’t think this Louisville defense is strong at all, but I will say that the line is the least of their concerns.
Linebacker, however, is a huge concern. None of the linebackers on the Louisville depth chart have been credited with a tackle in a game. Linebacker was probably the Cardinals’ strongest position last season. I liked Malik Jackson, Lamar Myles and Preston Smith. I thought it was an incredibly stupid decision by Myles to test the waters in the NFL and not come back. He would have been huge because of the leadership that comes with the MLB position. Instead, the depth chart lists Antwon Canady at MLB and Jon Dempsey and Dexter Heyman on the outside. Dempsey is a junior, Heyman is a freshman (but supposed to be pretty good for a freshman), and the depth chart I looked up didn’t say what Canady was. If Kentucky can open up the same kind of holes against Louisville that they did for Little last season, these linebackers had better be able to wrap up. All four of the Kentucky backs are tough to take down.
Louisville has experience at three of the four positions in the secondary, but that was probably the weakest part of Louisville’s 2007 defense, so I’m not sure that returning experience is necessarily a good thing. At cornerback, Woodny Turenne returns, and if you’re a Louisville fan, you hope he’s better at defending the deep ball than he was last year. Steve Johnson thanks you while he collects his check from the Buffalo Bills. Bobby Buchanan and Richard Raglin return at safety – good if you’re a fan of alliteration. I didn’t think that Louisville’s safeties communicated well with the corners during the Kentucky game, and really during every other game. The Cards also bring back LaTarrious Thomas at safety, who missed most of the 2007 season on the shelf.
It comes down to this: I think Kentucky is weak at WR, strong at RB and right in the middle at QB and OL. I think Louisville is weak at LB and DB and decent at DL. If push comes to shove, I say Kentucky has the advantage when they have the ball, but it’s closer than I made it look. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous about the offense. I have very bad memories of the 2006 game.
I’m Seth Stogsdill, and I’ll turn the tables with Part 2 either tomorrow or Saturday.
Posted in Alfonso Smith, Derrick Locke, Dicky Lyons Jr., Garry Williams, Joker Phillips, Louisville, Mike Hartline, Moncell Allen, Randall Cobb, Rich Brooks, Tony Dixon, UK football, Zipp Duncan