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UK/Louisville: The Aftermath

Raise your hand if you saw UK score two defensive touchdowns, have the potential for six interceptions (and getting three) and flat out playing the way the defense did on Sunday, before the game.

Put your hand down. You never saw that one coming as well as it did.

So what is next? Obviously, Louisville has some major questions offensively and defensively. But this isn’t a Louisville blog. So let’s breakdown what UK has to answer.

1. Can Dixon, Locke and Co. learn to make defenders miss?
Joker Phillips admitted after the game that teams are going to put an extra guy in the box. If those RBs don’t learn some spins, jukes and hurdles…. maybe that running game won’t be so good. That will be fatal to the offense.

2. Will the defense get too confident? Cat fans better hope not. Cantwell isn’t a Tim Tebow or Matt Stafford. Those QBs are better and have better receivers. They played well, but Louisville is still awful.

3. Can Myron Pyror sustain his great start? The dude was a beast. One forced fumble that created a defensive touchdown. Then a fumble recovery that he rambled 72-yards for a score himself. Wow. Things will be so much easy for the rest of the defensive line, including Jeremy Jarmon, if he keeps it up.

4. Will Hartline continue to be a game manager, not game changer? When UK played at Arkansas last year, the gameplan was simple for the defense, make Casey Dick try to win the game. Why? Because Casey Dick is awful. I’m not saying Hartline is awful, but you can’t really tell anything from the Louisville game. He did limit mistakes and showed a good short passing game. Can he continue to be the game manager UK needs or the game changer (good or bad) that will give fans ulcers.

That’s what I see as the questions UK has to answer. But one thing is for sure now… 4-0 GOING INTO TUSCALOOSA. Put your money down now, CBS will pick up that game with the way Alabama started. Holler.

The Prediction: Kentucky vs. Louisville

It’s about that time. I’m not content to wait any longer. I must do this.

I must make my prediction for the annual Governor’s Cup game be known right now. So here they are, numbered, but not in any specific order. Just treat it as a catch-all.

1. UK’s running backs will have their day in the sun. Historically the team that has won has had one back outrun the losing team. That’s been true since 1996. My prediction? For the first time in 12 years, that won’t happen. If UK’s coaches stay true to their word, UK will outrush Louisville and win the game. Just not with one back.

2. Louisville’s secondary was awful last year. I doubt they are better this year. Does that mean UK’s wide receivers will dominate? Probably not. Dicky Lyons Jr. might, the other guy? Watch for E.J. Adams. My prediction: Ron English can kiss my butt, Cats will still make big throws on the Cardinals.

3. Jeremy Jarmon will start not only his All-SEC run against Louisville, but his All-American candidacy as well. Or Louisville will double team Jarmon and Corey Peters will have a field day. Pick your poison.

4. Non-favorable UK prediction: Hunter Cantwell will have a solid day. Not great, but solid.

5. The game will be closer than I originally thought. Sure, UK has a running advantage, which will milk precious clock time. And UK has the better defense. But the Cards have a QB that can help lead a comeback. But in the end, Cantwell won’t have enough time to complete that comeback. My prediction?

UK 24, Louisville 17.

Rich Brooks finally wins at the Pizza Box.

KENTUCKY’S DEFENSE VS. LOUISVILLE’S OFFENSE

Louisville’s offense is significantly better than its defense. Hunter Cantwell has backed up Brian Brohm for three years, and it is his time to shine. I’m not as high on him as some of the Louisville fans who say he’s even better than Brohm and use some weird Mel Kiper formula to make that deduction, but he’s more battle-tested than Mike Hartline. Cantwell is about the same size as Brohm, and while he isn’t Tim Tebow, his mobility should not be underestimated. Hopefully I’m thinking of Cantwell and not Stefan LeFors. The biggest thing about Hunter than worries me as a UK fan is his leadership and experience. He has started a few games when Brohm was injured, and he didn’t fare badly at all. He is without question the leader of the Cardinals’ offense, and if Louisville is going to win this game, Cantwell will most likely be the most outstanding player in the game.

One thing that both John L. Smith and Bobby Petrino did exceptionally well at Louisville was recruit running backs. Eric Shelton, Lionel Gates, Kolby Smith, Michael Bush, Anthony Allen, Jujuan Spillman and George Stripling were all extremely talented backs, and most of those guys were bulldozers. Brock Bolen is another one of those bulldozers. As the Cardinals’ roster became more and more depleted last season, Bolen got a workman’s load of carries, and his bruising style led to a 4th quarter comeback against Rutgers. He’s listed as a fullback, but he gets more carries than the average fullback. The other running back that got lots of carries against Rutgers was Bilal Powell, who I honestly have never seen before. He didn’t get one carry against Kentucky, and I didn’t recognize him on special teams either, so I’m sorry, but I can’t tell you anything about his running style. The Cards will still be decent at RB, but they’ll definitely be a notch below their previous teams at the position.

At wide receiver, Louisville is in trouble. At least Kentucky has Dicky Lyons. Louisville was supposed to have Scott Long carrying a similar load as Lyons, but he broke his foot last week and is out. Without Long and Trent Guy, The Cardinals are woefully inexperienced. Doug Beaumont had lots of special teams tackles in 2007, but no catches. The only returning receiver who has any career catches is Chris Vaughn, and he’s listed as second on the depth chart. Troy Pascley starts alongside Beaumont, but once again, I have no idea if he’s a speed guy or a possession guy. At tight end, Pete Nochta has the unenviable task of replacing Gary Barnidge, and just like Kentucky’s tight ends with Jacob Tamme, I feel sorry for the backup tight ends from Louisville who have to replace Barnidge, because Gary was a good one.

Louisville has two outstanding offensive linemen. Tackle George Bussey and center Eric Wood are three-year starters, and both are legit. I can definitely see Wood in the NFL someday. Bussey may have to put on a little weight, as 306 is getting lighter and lighter for a tackle. At the other three positions, the Cards are very inexperienced. Tackle Jeff Adams and guard Mark Wetterer are sophomores with zero experience. Guard Abdul Kutayeh is a junior, but like the others, has next to no experience. Bussey and Wood can block pretty much anybody. I don’t think any of Kentucky’s sacks in last season’s game were on them, but if I were a Cardinal fan, I’d be a little worried about the other three positions.

This should be the best Kentucky defense in the Rich Brooks era. It improved greatly in Steve Brown’s first year as DC, and with almost everybody returning, it should be even better this season. It all starts on the line. Jeremy Jarmon is the most underrated defensive lineman in the SEC. His motor never stops running, he wraps up well against the run and is one of the best pass rushers I’ve seen at Kentucky. Fellow end Ventrell Jenkins is no slouch either. Both guys are capable of getting the big sack on 3rd down. Myron Pryor and Corey Peters are returning starters at defensive tackle. Injuries have slowed down Pryor since his awesome freshman year, but both he and Peters can clog the lanes well. Ricky Lumpkin comes back from injury at tackle, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of Josh Minton and Shane McCord either. Between those guys and Nii Adjei Oninku backing up the ends, this is one of the deepest defensive lines I can remember at UK.

At linebacker, Wesley Woodyard is gone. No one player can replace the skills or heart of Wes, but a team effort can get the job done. Braxton Kelley is moving to Wesley’s spot on the weak side. Normally it’s a tough transition to go from the middle to the outside, but I feel like Kelley is both physically and mentally tough enough to get it done. Kelley moving to the outside opens it up for Micah Johnson to move to a permanent spot on the inside. Micah has finally been given the opportunity to live up to his potential. He’s shown flashes of brilliance in a backup role, but for whatever reason, he was never able to take the starting job away from Kelley. Nothing against Johnson, because Kelley is very good. Johnson’s time is now, and I hope he makes the most of it. Johnny “Hitman” Williams will line up in the other outside slot, but there have also been rumors that his pass rushing ability will enable him to line up on the line, similar to what Lawrence Taylor used to do with the New York Football Giants. Not saying Johnny is LT (nobody is), but the roles may be similar. Sam Maxwell backs up Williams on the strong side, and he’s a super athletic player. There’s a guy who can just fly to the ball.

In the secondary, Cantwell had best not throw to Trevard Lindley, or else the ball will get picked off. Lindley is one of the top cover corners in the country, and I don’t feel like a big homer when I say that. He just does everything well, and I’d say he’s the best player on the Kentucky roster. It hurt when we lost Paul Warford on the other corner for the year, but I think that a healthy David Jones can prove to be a great remedy. Shomari Moore and Robbie McAtee provide experience in nickel and dime packages. At safety, the explosive Ashton Cobb replaces the reliable Roger Williams. This has benefits and drawbacks. Roger wasn’t as athletic as Cobb, but he didn’t take as many risks either. Nothing sucks worse than when a safety gambles on a pick or a big hit and gets burned. Marcus McClinton comes back for his senior year at SS, and he’s nothing but solid. Calvin Harrison started a few games last year when Marcus got hurt, so the secondary is also very experienced and deep.

Louisville is decent at QB, good at RB, weak at WR and questionable at three of the five OL positions. Kentucky is good at DL, very good at LB and good at DB. I still worry a little bit about David Jones lining up opposite lindley in the secondary, and I think both safeties go for the big play too much at the expense of making the sure play. Still, that isn’t enough of a concern to prevent me from saying advantage: Kentucky.

As for the prediction, I’ll take care of that tomorrow.

I’m Seth Stogsdill, and if Tommy Beecher can start for South Carolina, so can I.

UK Football Morning Roundup

Lots on the plate, not a lot of time as I plan to head off to the Kentucky State Fair here in Louisville today. So we’ll make these quick.

First off, CBS looks to have made a mistake and released their tentative schedule for football this year. Although the station usually waits 10 days before a game to decide, in order to allow for changes during the season, it also looks like they do actually highlight some games on the calendar for the future. And UK is only highlighted twice.

10/04 – 2:30 p.m.-6:00 p.m. Florida @ Arkansas or Kentucky @ Alabama (CBS HD)
11/08 – 2:30 p.m.-6:00 p.m. Alabama @ LSU or Georgia @ Kentucky (CBS HD)

Looks like CBS expects UK to possibly be 4-0 going into Tuscaloosa. As for Georgia/UK, looks like CBS is buying into that being the Dawgs trap game. Either way, hope the Cats can get on national TV again.

Secondly, the real reason why practice was canceled Monday has arrived. ESPN’s Chris Low sat down with Rich Brooks and has a two part transcipt posted on his SEC blog on ESPN.com. Part 1 here. Part 2 here.

He also writes about Jeremy Jarmon. We wrote about Jarmon’s acting abilities back in the spring. Get with the program ESPN. Here’s the best part of all three interviews:

What’s your plan at quarterback right now?

RB: (Sophomore) Mike Hartline would start, and we would see how the game went. If we were not moving the ball, I might make a change to (true freshman) Randall Cobb just to see if I could shake things up. Hartline can run a little, but Cobb can run really well. There’s a possibility early on to have a change-of-pace deal at quarterback, but my biggest concern is getting our offensive line gelled in the next two weeks

Randall Cobb = the athletic ability of Curtis Pulley without the liability on and off the field. Yipee!

That’s all for you to chew on now, but later in the week we’ll bring you the ballots of our SEC Power Poll friends to see how much they dissed Rich Brooks. They better hope they didn’t!

The Top 10 Returning Players This Season.

Earlier, we made a list of the top 10 impact freshmen this season. Guys who thought were going to see significant playing time or do something important. Now, we bring you the top 10 returning players. These guys are upperclassmen who should know it’s their time to shine, possibly after playing second fiddle.

1. Dicky Lyons Jr.
There’s no doubt that Lyons is essential this year. If Lyons shows his 2006 form, the wide receiver position will be solid. If he hides like he did last year, the offense could be in trouble.

2. Braxton Kelley
Kelley has big shoes to fill since Wesley Woodyard left, but has shown that he can do a good job after sliding over.

3. Alfonso Smith
Tony Dixon is the current starter and everyone knows about Derrick Locke, but Smith will be the key to the running backs. Forgotten by the fans, Smith is hungry as the spring game showed. Smith was the speedster before Locke came on the team and he’ll remind everyone of that.

4. Jeremy Jarmon
The dude is a beast. If he can disrupt half of the line and create pressure, things get easier for everyone.

5. Micah Johnson
After two years it’s Micah’s time. His success at middle linebacker could really made UK’s linebacking corps really really good.

6. Garry Williams
This tackle protects Mike Hartline’s blindslide. And Williams needs to make sure Hartline doesn’t end up on his backside often.

7. Trevard Lindley
If Mr. Lindley continues to improve and virtually lock down half the field, both on the run and the pass, it makes things a whole lot easier to scheme your defense. Would be higher, but we know Trevard will bring his A-game.

8. Kyrus Lanxter
Coming off injury, Lanxter is a tall WR with potential. If he can lock down the No. 2 spot, that allows UK to send all of it’s talent freshmen into the slot and no. 4 receiver roles, creating havoc for opposing secondaries. Lanxter is the second part of the WR puzzle.

9. Ashton Cobb
The strong safety could play an important role if Marcus Clinton shows lingering effects of his injury last year. A hard-hitter in the defensive backfield, the more he makes a TE or WR think about coming over the middle, the better.

10. Mike Hartline
C’mon, you knew I had to put the QB on the list. Although I will say this, if Hartline is less than stellar, it won’t kill the offense. Give it the old SEC QB approach son: just don’t cost your team the game.

Jeremy Jarmon: UK’s best overall player?

If you believe the Gainesville Sun and ESPN.com’s Chris Low, then yeah… Jeremy Jarmon is UK’s best player.

The Sun released their list of the top 25 players going into this season in the SEC and Jarmon clocks in at 24 on the newspaper’s list.

ESPN’s Chris Low then took a crack at his own list, putting Jarmon at 23. You can view the newspaper’s list at that link as well.

It never dawned on me that Jarmon is probably our best player, offensively or defensively going into the season. If you would have asked me before today, I probably would have said Trevard Lindley. But Jarmon’s pass rush ability is going to make or break our defense — Lindley can’t cover all day.

Also, the only team that didn’t have a top 25 player on the list? Bobby Petrino’s Arkansas team. Ouch.

Coach’s Preseason All-SEC Team

By now, we’ve all seen the pre-season All-SEC teams that were voted on by the coaches and released by the SEC yesterday, in advance of SEC media days.

If you haven’t seen the lists, go here.

The Cats landed 5 players on either the second or third team. No Cat made the first team. Which is a BIG snub.

Even ESPN’s Chris Low agrees: Trevard Lindley deserves to be a first-teamer in the SEC. Instead, a three-way tie for two of the four DB positions on the first team pushes Lindley to the second-team.

Sure, there are other good corners in the league.. but as good as Lindley as been as a freshman and sophomore? I’m not so sure. Lindley has key interceptions in multiple games the last few years. He is closing in on breaking UK’s career pass break up record. And he was a big help in run support last year.

But the snub is nothing new. Lindley has been under the radar the past two years and he’s starting under the radar last year. But go back and watch some tapes, coaches stayed away from Lindley. No.1 receivers would suddenly turn into slot guys when playing UK. He’s UK’s best kept secret.

DE Jeremy Jarmon, is a good pick as a second-teamer. So is OT Garry Williams for the second-team offense.

And linebackers Braxton Kelley and Micah Johnson as third team LB’s. Well, that’s just interesting that they are paired together. With both of them on the field, I see a lot of pair activities. Those two are going to wreck havoc on offenses this year, together, and it’s only fitting that how they land on the third team All-SEC defense.

The five players were good enough for seventh in the 12 team SEC. Finally, the summer snubs against the Cats lift…if only for a little bit.

How to Replace Wesley Woodyard

This is a topic I’ve bounced around with some of my friends who also cover UK football: how can a defense that lost their best defense playmaker and emotional leader for the past two years actually be considered better this year?

In effect, how do you replace Wesley Woodyard and his production? And my answer was simple: in order to have a GOOD defense, you need more than just one playmaker carrying your defense.

Yes, it’s possible to have a great linebacker that can get 10-12 tackles a game in a defense that is just as good. You can have a superstar on a superstar unit. But more often than not, if you have a linebacker consistently making 10-12 tackles a game, you have a superstar on a bad unit.

Although it’s nothing new in the SEC. Patrick Willis carried the Ole Miss defense. And he’s not the only example.

But I think ESPN’s Chris Low, who now runs a not-half-bad SEC blog has touched on two of the reasons why UK will have a better defense next year.

1. Trevard Lindley is one, if not THE number one, underrated player in the league. The man’s highlight tape is endless. Crucial pick to seal a 2006 Georgia win as a freshman. Pick against LSU last year. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. He’s the quietest lockdown corner in the league. And he can tackle.

2. Jeremy Jarmon is ready for a breakout year. The guy is a monster and if he stays healthy, tackles everywhere will be hurting. The guy has a good motor and is a beast. If Corey Peter and/or Myron Pyror stay healthy and clog the middle like they can, watch out.

3. Braxton Kelley and Micah Johnson will make the best outside-inside combo UK has seen in a while. No offense to Sam Maxwell or Johnny Williams, the other linebacker, but Johnson is a beast that everyone has been waiting to get on the field. And Kelley is a solid player that has improved the last two years. Together, they should be pretty sick.

4. We have more depth than in years past. The secondary is deep, especially safety. Linebackers have some wiggle room, as does defensive line. That’s never happened before.

5. If healthy, Marcus McClinton will team with whoever lands at strong safety (and whoever grabs it, they will be good Calvin Harrison or Ashton Cobb) to produce a hard-hitting combo that will scare any receiver going across the middle. And McClinton has pretty good hands too.

Those are just five reasons I can think off the top of my head. Yeah, Wesley Woodyard was a great player. And I don’t think anyone person can replace him, but even in spring practice I had numerous defensive players say the same: “it’s a team effort now”.

And I sure do like the team effort put together, post Woodyard.

Blue Ribbon/ESPN Preview: 7 Wins Not Impossible.

ESPN has recently been releasing previews on all 12 SEC teams. The East preview was two days ago; the West previews were yesterday. Sadly, they were all “insider” content, meaning you better have a subscription that you pay for already or cough up some dough. Otherwise… no preview for you.

Until right now! That’s right, here’s a look into the preview that you don’t have to pay for. You can thank us whenever.

Blue Ribbon gives a hat tip to Brooks and the advancement of the program, seemingly buying into what the coach is selling. Definitely a good thing, since every other preseason mag has predicted doom and gloom for the Cats this year. Blue Ribbon takes it all with a grain a salt. They have hope, but not much.

From there, they basically break down every player in every position. It’s stuff you already know. We’re skipping it for the good stuff, which is the rankings they provide at the end.

Grading the Wildcats
Unit Grade
Offense C
Special teams B
Defense B-
Intangibles C

The Blue Ribbon guys aren’t convinced that an improved o-line is going to be able to sustain our running attack when 9 are in the box. And with no quarterback set and Dicky Lyons as the only big returning WR, they grade the Cats at a C. I’m not so sure that will be the case this year. Joker’s a great OC, Sanders a great QB coach. Look at the last two years… they made those guys, not vice versa. But understandably, the offense is graded as middle of the pack.

Special teams? Eh… I could care less. Seiber still needs to get consistent.

Defense. Blue Ribbon tries to give UK the benefit of the doubt when the coaches said the defense will be improved. Most of the other mags usually laughed. I think that’s why Blue Ribbon gave the defense a B- instead of a more likely B. I think the defense is a strong B, leaning to B+. But like I said, you aren’t going to get anyone outside the state to take that view.

Intangibles. The C rating is deserved. Why? The defensive and offense leaders were lost. Potential defensive leader Jeremy Jarmon sat out most of the spring and the lack of a quarterback leads the offense faceless. Dicky Lyons Jr. has tried to become that offensive leader during the summer, so we’ll see. As for the defense, Marcus McClinton and Jeremy Jarmon could step up. Until they do, I think a C rating is good.

And I’ll leave you with the final remarks from the Blue Ribbon crew:

Many doubt if UK can play in a bowl again this year. But Brooks has a deeper, faster team and one that goes into this season with much more confidence thanks to two straight bowl wins. Kentucky will need a few breaks and a big upset like the ones it pulled the last two years against Georgia and LSU to win seven games, but a seven-win season is not an impossible task

Athlon Magazine: UK football on the Downslide.

This is the second leg of a series where we here at WC break down what each preseason college football magazine says about UK football for the 2008 season.

Our first look was at Lindy’s College Football Magazine, which was wildly off-base.

Now we turn to Athlon, one of the better magazines. And the outlook is only slightly better for the Cats. Athlon puts the Cats as fifth in the SEC East, behind South Carolina and above Vanderbilt. Nothing new there, Kentucky finished fifth last year (thanks to South Carolina owning a tiebreaker) and it’s been a safe bet year in and year out…so far.

But, Athlon lists UK as one of their five programs going down, also including Louisville and Arkansas in that list. The reason: losing all their offensive firepower. This is a trend throughout the book and I have a feeling it’s going to be the calling card of most “experts” until the season starts. I just don’t think they understand how big UK’s rushing attack is going to be this year.

Athlon gives UK no “games to watch” and the highest ranking any position gets is 7th in the SEC–an honor shared by the running backs and defensive backs. Ouch. Although Athlon places two Cats on their first team All-SEC, CB Trevard Lindley and DE Jeremy Jarmon. OT Garry Williams makes third team on the offense. Respectable, I guess.

Heck, in the team profile, Athlon even quotes head coach Rich Brooks as saying he doesn’t believe his team in on the downside. Athlon doesn’t actually believe Brooks, but leaves room for his words to ring true.

Athlon really takes a bipolar approach to the Cats. They rank them 58 in the nation, well above rival Louisville (who lands in the 60s), but the magazine believes that the without any offensive returners of note, the SEC will shallow the Cats whole. Oh and they also crown Florida as their national champion, bucking the popular Georgia pick I’ve seen so far this year (the Dawgs do have a hellish schedule).

Here’s for sure wins Athlon puts the Cats down for: Norfolk State, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky and Vanderbilt.

Here’s Athlon’s for sure losses: At Alabama, At Florida, At Mississippi State (why is this game a loss in every book and article I read? Really? When did Miss. St. turn into a powerhouse? please.) Georgia and At Tennessee.

And the swing games: At Louisville, South Carolina and Arkansas.

So Athlon has UK with a 4-5 record, with three swing games. If UK sweeps those games, it’s 7-5 record. Win 2 and it’s 6-6. Reasonable, although I’m not so convinced that Mississippi State is a for sure loss. Sorry, Croom.

Overall, Athlon acts like UK would fair better if they have an offense. They hesitantly give the defense credit, but constantly harp on the departure of key offensive seniors from last year. But overall, I think Athlon is close to gettting it right. Losses to Georgia and Florida seem kinda obvious, with the teams they are returning and Alabama is everyone’s sleeper pick.

And everyone is going to pick Tennessee to beat UK because well, they always do, as crappy as that is. In all, Athlon hits the mark if your trying to be objective. They point out what could hurt the Cats, while providing room for a quality season to still seem in reach. They pick Louisville as a swing game because it’s a rivalry and crazier things have happened. And it’s really hard to get mad at a magazine that follows every knock on UK with a way they could explode. Very disarming.

Athlon passes the test, but not with flying colors.